Forums > Living in Kunming > New Coronavirus Thank you GoKunming for the "live update" posting, and confirming Kunming's long-distance bus suspension.
I second the notion we shouldn't panic.
However, prematurely stating that "the mortality rate is low — as compared to SARS" may be conceptually misguided.
Permission to speak, and to correct a potential flaw.
Mortality rate for SARS is easy to measure because of no new cases. Relatively fixed and closed ended.
Whereas for 2019-nCoV, new confirmed cases are popping up continuously. This deflates mortality rates and dangerously masks the actual severity.
Allow me to explain.
If 2 new cases are confirmed for City X, where the city had none before. Mortality rate for City X would stand at zero, b/c patients have relatively begun their battle against the virus.
Damage to body takes Y period of time to worsen as virus permeate internally. Y is not instantaneous.
More accurate measurements of mortality rate would be focusing on cities that have the oldest data of greater sample size to fully account Y time variable.
That would be in Wuhan.
That being said, last night's data on Wuhan prior to the new cases reported overnight:
3g.dxy.cn/[...]
63 (deaths) / 698 (confirmed cases) = 0.09 = 9% mortality rate.
Thus, ~1% shy of SARS for City of Wuhan on Jan. 27th. This 9% mortality rate was yesterday.
However, hours later, 892 new confirmed cases were bumped for Wuhan. These 892 newly confirmed cases are relatively newer carriers showing diagnosed symptoms, as oppose those already in Wuhan being treated in quarantine.
As explained above, bodies' defense will fight the infection, vice versa. This takes time. Subsequently, the mortality rate was reduced to 5.3% (85 deaths/1590 confirmed) as of the moment for Wuhan.
3g.dxy.cn/[...]
Per above argument, if you continue to add new cases throughout Mainland and the World, the general mortality rate will further decrease. But only because of the relative recency factor discussed.
Thus, we shouldn't keep our guards down thinking this isn't serious because of deflated mortality rates.
Simple math and deduction.
Coronavirus: update and precautions
Posted byClicking on individual province tab reveals cities infected. Apparently both incidents in Yunnan are in Kunming City.
Police ought put their citywide cameras to good use to track their whereabouts history in Kunming prior to quarantine, if they left airport at all.
Coronavirus: update and precautions
Posted byThank you for working overtime!
For second link, are these officially confirmed numbers by the government? Reported death tolls and transmission figures are higher than those of "live updated" ones on western news sites.