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Forums > Living in Kunming > New Coronavirus

A source if you want to get into the weeds with a free newsletter:

The Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) is an independent population health research center at UW Medicine, part of the University of Washington, that provides rigorous and comparable measurement of the world's most important health problems

www.healthdata.org/

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Forums > Living in Kunming > New Coronavirus

Just a note on the transmissibility of the virus.

In estimating, forecasting or, my favorite, “guessing” the transmissibility of this, or any, disease a factor is used. This factor represents the big unknown and is used in most, if not all, modeling algorithms. It is called “R subzero.”

Not “R oh.” Often it is referred to as “R zero” or ‘R naught” or simply as “R” and represents the self-sustaining human-to-human transmission, or reproduction rate, of the virus.

This reproduction number is an estimate. It will always be an estimate, or an assumption (a guess), to be used in understanding and modeling the growth and spread of a disease.

Imperial College London has a report dated January 25, 2020, “Report 3: Transmissibility of 2019-nCoV” which is interesting.
www.imperial.ac.uk/[...]

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@bilingualexpat: No need to apologize, ad hominem attacks to be expected when one hold contrarian positions on common knowledge topics and engages in discussions.

Another fun fact for you: In 2016, China ADDED 48GW, or 5.4%, to production capacity of coal fired electricity generation.

To be fair, power production stats in China are soft at best. Circa 2008, when GDP growth around the world were flat or declining, China posted GDP increase of 6.5% AND a decline in electricity production of 16% for the same period. WTF? Trends for GDP and electricity heretofore had consistently tracked. For 4-6 months electricity production was omitted from monthly and quarterly reports.

Sifting through reports, it is difficult find evidence of any reduction in either aggregate capacity or generation. In fact, the Paris deal allows China to keep increasing her carbon footprint until it peaks in 2030. Only then has China agreed to begin reducing use of coal.

China has been importing coal from NORK, In June, China announced she would curtail such imports. Given that in June the demand for coal drops significantly, I believe China.

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@bilingualexpat: Your claim "now you're arguing against EV production in China" is a figment of your ideology warped thought process. I know you need to attack me rather than deal with the unsustainability of EV production but so be it.

You claim a 9% reduction in coal production AND then claim coal consumption has fallen 4.7%. Interesting. Do you seriously claim production has declined so much more than use? Does that make sense?

How does China increase electric generation capacity using coal 5.4% while producing less coal, 9%, and consuming less, 4.7%, coal?

I will leave it to you to dive into the study of China's inconsistent economic statistics. I've been doing it for more than 30 years and usually hit a WTF point sooner than later.

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In 2016, 59% of China's electricity was produced in coal fired plants.

17% of the electricity produced by wind power went unused in China.

In 2016, China increased total electrical power production capacity 7.7% and coal production capacity grew 5.4%, or 39% of the capacity increase.

Unlike Norway, China's hydro generation is only 21% of capacity.

The underlying problem is a power grid built without market considerations. Forcing increased demand for electricity consumption will not ease environmental pressures.

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Good for quality, but pricey, hand tools.

Be aware they will push whatever they are selling. Some of the staff have no idea about the technical side of appliances.

I went there to buy a stove. I repeatedly told them I would be using bottled gas. They sold me a stove. When I went to my local gas guy, I learned there are at least three kinds of gas sold. Luckily, B&Q did not deliver as promised. I went back to the store and discovered they had sold me a stove they needed to be hooked up to the gas main. I got my money back.

The sales lady was almost in tears, 没有问题！I don't know if it a safety or design issue, but I would think B&Q would know and care.

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Last week had an 8:45am flight.

Subway starts at 9am. I have no idea where to catch an airport express bus. Eight taxis refused to go to the airport. After almost an hour standing on Beijing Lu took a black taxi, this dude drives slower than my mother, 120 yuan.

Flight back was delayed so I learned the subway stops running at 6:10pm.

Getting a taxi back was easy, more taxis than customers. Taxi was 87 yuan including 1o yuan toll, airport to Beichen area. Yes, he took a longer route than necessary.

Kunming imagines being a gateway for international travelers. New airport but hard to get to and from it.

World Class Airport, NOT!

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Tonight "Peacock", a performance by Yang Liping (杨丽萍), to begin her world tour, 8pm, 100-1680 yuan at Yunna Haigeng Auditorium.

Saw this lady perform at the Pasadena Civic Auditorium, in California, in 1995. Quite a good and interesting show.

I'm going to try to make it.

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Not so good. Kimchi had a very sour taste. Other food was nothing to brag about. I don't think I would go back.