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Forums > Living in Kunming > New Coronavirus

A source if you want to get into the weeds with a free newsletter:

The Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) is an independent population health research center at UW Medicine, part of the University of Washington, that provides rigorous and comparable measurement of the world's most important health problems

www.healthdata.org/

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Forums > Living in Kunming > New Coronavirus

Just a note on the transmissibility of the virus.

In estimating, forecasting or, my favorite, “guessing” the transmissibility of this, or any, disease a factor is used. This factor represents the big unknown and is used in most, if not all, modeling algorithms. It is called “R subzero.”

Not “R oh.” Often it is referred to as “R zero” or ‘R naught” or simply as “R” and represents the self-sustaining human-to-human transmission, or reproduction rate, of the virus.

This reproduction number is an estimate. It will always be an estimate, or an assumption (a guess), to be used in understanding and modeling the growth and spread of a disease.

Imperial College London has a report dated January 25, 2020, “Report 3: Transmissibility of 2019-nCoV” which is interesting.
www.imperial.ac.uk/[...]

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Geez, what a bunch of sensitive foreigners. Frankly, I love fresh durian, stinky tofu, hotpot and don't mind incense. I like nuoc mam too. Hate to ask but WTF are you guys doing in China?

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Now that Bluegogo has gone Byebye, we can get an idea of who made money, and how, providing shared bikes. The unknown is the actual cost of the bikes, A Bloomberg article puts the Bluegogo cost at $400 USD (¥2640) each which I doubt. Mobike says their cost per bike is ¥1000 and other companies say between ¥300 to ¥600 per bike.

Using an exchange rate of 6.6 yuan/1 USD, here is Blugogo's take:

Investors poured in $58.1 Million USD.

20 Million riders forked up deposits, at an estimated ¥99 Yuan each, totaling a cool $300 Million USD.

Cost of 600,000 bikes varies:
Each ¥400 is $36.6 Million USD
Each ¥600 is $54.6 Million USD
Each ¥1000 is $91.2 Million USD
Each ¥2640 is $240.0 Million USD

Net cash flow to the PROMOTERS before salaries, rents and operating expenses
(Investors + Deposit less cost of bikes):

Bike cost each ¥400 is $321.5 Million USD
Bike cost each ¥600 is $303.5 Million USD
Bike cost each ¥1000 is $266.9 Million USD
Bike cost each ¥2640 is $118.1 Million USD

My guess is a bike cost of about ¥600 before kickbacks and over invoicing which leaves more than $200 Million USD for the PROMOTORS. Along the way a bank or two might have made working capital loans and a few nice cars were bought. To lower exposure some stock buybacks from selected investors might have been made. The secrets are all in the books of Bluegogo if they can be found or reconstructed. If I was still teaching Accounting I would use Bluegogo as a teaching tool.

Moral: In China forget profits, look at cash flows, big front money and promotor benefits for quick bankruptcy. Slam Bam, thank you mam, badabing, badabam and Adios!

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@vicar: You make a good point and I agree. However, China has invested heavily in lithium battery production and the capacity online is no way near being used.

To me it is pretty much 1-2-3: 1 - China's lack of liquefied dinosaurs, 2 - A strong domestic demand for autos and the ability to meet that demand, and, 3 - A really relaxed attitude toward environmental concerns means lithium battery production is a lower cost deal in China.

Lithium batteries are really nasty things that, besides a tendency to go boom, have a lot of bad news byproducts that are hard to get rid of.

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Good for quality, but pricey, hand tools.

Be aware they will push whatever they are selling. Some of the staff have no idea about the technical side of appliances.

I went there to buy a stove. I repeatedly told them I would be using bottled gas. They sold me a stove. When I went to my local gas guy, I learned there are at least three kinds of gas sold. Luckily, B&Q did not deliver as promised. I went back to the store and discovered they had sold me a stove they needed to be hooked up to the gas main. I got my money back.

The sales lady was almost in tears, 没有问题！I don't know if it a safety or design issue, but I would think B&Q would know and care.

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Last week had an 8:45am flight.

Subway starts at 9am. I have no idea where to catch an airport express bus. Eight taxis refused to go to the airport. After almost an hour standing on Beijing Lu took a black taxi, this dude drives slower than my mother, 120 yuan.

Flight back was delayed so I learned the subway stops running at 6:10pm.

Getting a taxi back was easy, more taxis than customers. Taxi was 87 yuan including 1o yuan toll, airport to Beichen area. Yes, he took a longer route than necessary.

Kunming imagines being a gateway for international travelers. New airport but hard to get to and from it.

World Class Airport, NOT!

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Tonight "Peacock", a performance by Yang Liping (杨丽萍), to begin her world tour, 8pm, 100-1680 yuan at Yunna Haigeng Auditorium.

Saw this lady perform at the Pasadena Civic Auditorium, in California, in 1995. Quite a good and interesting show.

I'm going to try to make it.

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Not so good. Kimchi had a very sour taste. Other food was nothing to brag about. I don't think I would go back.