.

Early estimate of the “2019-nCoV acute respiratory disease” mortality rate by WHO:

Jan. 29
WHO states that the mortality rate is estimated at 2.0% but still to early to tell. Praises China for its incredible measures to contain the virus.

www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/who-coronavirus/

In the next 10 days, by Feb 10th, you will begin to see the recovery numbers increase.

By Feb 20th, the recovery numbers begin to out pace the new cases. The mortality rate will remain under 3%.

People get sick and some die. The majority survive, get better, and life goes on. So says the Geezer on Jan 31, 2020.

"The respective mortality rates for SARS and MERS patients was 9.5 and 34.5 percent, far higher that for the new coronavirus, which French health minister Agnes Buzyn put at "less than five percent."

The R0 is estimated at

"1.4 to 3.8 people infected by a single patient, according to David Fisman, a professor at the University of Toronto.

Chinese scientists, however, have said that one patient, on average, will have spread the virus to 5.5 other people."

www.sciencealert.com/[...]

@Trumpster I agree with your logic and conclusion. In fact, my thinking is about the same as yours. I would add in the concept of pre-control vice post-control.

Post-control is easier as it is reactive and demands only fast responses such as quarantine and denial of movement.

Pre-control is a prevention effort requiring a huge push to educate and change hygiene habits. It faces the resistance of centuries cultural knowledge.

Given the current virus is asymptomatic while the victim is contagious for up to 14 days, post-control fails as the R0 factor could be quite high. The R0 factor refers to how many other people one sick person is likely to infect on average. For a discussion of R0 and progression see:
www.newscientist.com/[...]

Reliance on traditional medical practices, while less costly, hasn't promoted effective pre-controls (hygiene) and the current post-controls are terribly ineffective.

Fortunately the apparent mortality rate is low so we can hope. I'm guessing there will be a huge number of cases with a low mortality rate.

WASH your hands.