Does anybody have any idea if google's gmail will be blocked in China once google.cn ceases operation?

very much doubt it.

Hopefully not, but I would be completely unsurprised as the entire google domain can be very easily blocked. As a precaution, I've exported all of my contacts and have set up my gmail account to forward to a backup hotmail account but to leave the email in my gmail account as well, so I'm hopefully covered. If they do block it, it will just happen with no advance warning, so being prepared is probably not a bad idea.

I'm not sure either but I'd venture to guess no...not right away. It seems basically like Google's card to play is shutting down Google.cn, not Google.com or other versions, including gmail.com. But then again China could 'retaliate' by blocking all google sites.

Heres a quote from an article: If Google.cn closes, some of its existing traffic could shift to Google.com servers run outside of China, assuming that the government doesn't block all access to the site. Currently, Chinese users can access Google.com, although searches for certain sensitive terms return just error messages.
online.wsj.com/[...]

I wouldn't be surprised if gmail was affected eventually, but part of me really wants to see what will happen. I think the hacking into private accounts (almost undeniably done for, if not directly by the Chinese government) is completely unforgivable and terrifyingly rampant. And while most of the world's governments are starting to buckle under their need to pander to China for economic reasons, maybe it will take a corporation like Google to be the first to really take a stand. My biggest problem is not the fact that it happened- internet hacking and invasion of privacy is probably more widespread than any of us want to believe. But the reactions so far of the Chinese government have been complete hubris- basically feigning outrage at being accused and turning to threaten its accusers of disturing relations with China. Someone needs to cut them down to size on this issue and many others.

But - - as Devil's Advocate - - if you do business in China, should you not have to obey the laws of China?

I know if a Chinese firm does business in Texas, they have to obey the local (and federal) laws - - or quit doing business.

Being a double Deveil's Advocate - The Chinese government and law enforcement authorities don't not obey the laws of China, so why should anyone else?

Yeah there are different issues at stake- 1. Google not censoring its content on Google.cn, 2. Google shutting down Google.cn because of the Chinese government's invasion of users' privacy, and 3. (for me, pretty important) China's response to accusations and outrage at the invasion of privacy.

I'm not sure I care so much about the first. I think its a waste of Beijing's time and resources and censorship is pretty bogus but Google can take it or leave it. Its their own business decision and they'll bear responsibility for China's reaction to whatever they choose to do.
As for the second, as I said before I'd be really impressed if Google took a stand because its getting harder and harder for global political leaders to do so.
The last point is what worries/bothers me the most. China is flexing its muscles with issues like this and increasingly using the threat that accusations against it will harm other countries' relations with China. To me this seems like China's officially decided they are strong enough that, despite any transgressions they may make and be exposed for, the global community wants good ties with China above anything else, and China can exploit that. To me this is scary.

"the global community wants good ties with China above anything else, and China can exploit that."

Well isn't that what other big countries do? And no, having democracy back home does not f.in justify anything.

If and when China decides to block google.com, gmail will then be blocked as it redirects to the google.com domain. The USA is currently using websites such as facebook, twitter, youtube, and a plethora of other social networking sites to impersonate various unsavory personalities to entrap various other arguably unsavory characters. The cyber world will eventually fall under "eminent domain" laws - meaning the US law enforcement and other agencies can seize cyber-things for public good which over-rides free speech and privacy concerns everytime (although feel free to attempt a supreme court ruling). This is exactly what Google allegedly complains about (hacking, seizing information) in China - so I would argue that Google is either an idiot (which I doubt) or has an alternate agenda.

All major websites experience hack attacks on a daily basis and that Google was able to be hacked indicates a weakness so why whine - strengthen your privacy barriers.