Seems like the DPRK again is out throwing rocks and shouting insults at the big boys. Are they looking for a fight? Since I am up anyway waiting for the CL final here is what I think:

North Korea is on it's own. China is definately not intervening in a war and to be honest I think the CCP will be relieved to get rid of Crazy Kim and his companions. A democratic united Korea is no threat to China and the CCP knows that.

The North is not going to start a war either. They are rattling their sabres and shouting as usual but what they really want is recognition from the US and a guarantee that they will not be attacked in the future. 16 years of on and off negotiations have failed and the North sees no better relations under Obama so they are playing hardball gambling that their nukes will get them what they want on the political scene. It is a dangerous game though. The US and the South might decide to make their move before the DPRK can fit nukes to their missiles. If it happens it is going to be an ugly war but in the end the outcome is unavoidable and I doubt anyone will miss that tiny excuse for a man Kim Jong Il and his uber repressive regime.

The DPRK served an important purpose for China for many decades but these days it is just not worth the trouble anymore in China's new reality as a marketeconomy hungering for acceptance and recognition as a major supposedly peaceful player on the international scene.

I also agree that the recent events (despite raising the stakes considerably) are an attempt by the North to attain economic and security guarantees and benefits, with de-nuclearisation being their ultimate bargaining chip. But wow, they really are going all out this time.

Pyongyang surely knows that a war will be both incredibly ugly and result in their defeat. Unfortunately it's not as easy as pointing a dozen guided missiles at the North's nuclear sites. Seoul is in the unfortunate position of being within range of tens of thousands of artillery pieces which would raise the city in hours. Talk about poor town planning.

The most worrying part for me is less so a nuclear capable North Korea (depending on how far you read into their leader being a nutcase, or their intent on being isolated through deterrence), but rather the increased risk of a nuclear arms race in North-East Asia, and the setting of a dangerous precedent in regards to new states attaining nuclear weapons. The international community's hands seemed to be tied beyond damning the DPRK's test and searching a few more boats. Also, I can't help but wonder what the chances are of the North trading their new creation with other states. This recent test could be seen as a demonstration for buyers.

I agree, North Korea is proving to be quite a hangover for China which they would gladly rid themselves of. It's a nice change to see the CCP condeming such behaviour.

^(raze not raise)

It's just because Kim wants some attention. After all, he's so ronery.

i think the north and the south are technically still at war

It's true but semantics. They signed a truce but no official peace agreement after the war. In reality there isn't any difference today when it comes to the actual state of war or peace.

This is a conflict which would be in this man's opinion quite possibly the most worthwhile of any in recent history. A sick, troubled, oppressive state that starves it's own people shouldn't exist.

However, it offers China a great buffer zone between them and the US and SK armies station in the ROK. An expensive buffer, granted, but effective. The most likely scenario would be the Chinese sweeping in and installing a someone friendly to the Chinese government - likely someone from the military as the KPA undoubtedly has huge influence in the country. I could see them initiating in economic reforms while maintaining an authoritarian political system.

Succession crisis. Kim had a stroke not long ago, and now has to prepare for his heir.

I have discussed this topic with a number of Chinese academics who seriously suggest that China is playing a 'waiting game'. Some people regard Korea as part of the mainland. China would not permit the DPRK to lose a war with the south - just as before. I suspect that Kim knows this too.

I doubt educated people here would claim Korea as "part of the mainland". I could be wrong though,, I once read a nutter post from a guy who believed China had the right to claim Western Asia all the way to Hungary because the Mongols (who ofcourse also are "Chinese") once conquered it. Nothing really suprises me here any longer.

Don't forget that they (supposedly) also invented basketball and soccer? Just seems they can't play it very well, on the whole...